基于复杂网络的煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故致因分析

    Cause analysis of coal mine gas explosion accidents based on complex networks

    • 摘要: 发现致灾因子和事故致因链的网络分析对预防或减少煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故的发生具有重要意义。首先以国内煤矿瓦斯事故报告为依据,构建事故致因知识集,得出煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故的25个致灾因子;并根据复杂网络理论构建煤矿瓦斯事故致灾因子网络,计算相关参数,通过对网络的整体属性分析与个体属性进行分析,探析煤矿瓦斯致灾因子特性,找出关键节点;最后计算煤矿瓦斯事故致因链的边介数,并提出断链措施。结果表明:煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故致因网络具有小世界的网络特性,其平均路径长度仅为1.752,显示出各致因要素间存在紧密的耦合关系,关键节点有工人违规操作、停电停风、瓦斯积聚、煤炭自燃、瓦斯积聚;边介数最大的边为监管人员失职→工人违规操作,对关键节点和边实施管控可有效控制煤矿瓦斯事故的发生或衍生发展。

       

      Abstract: The network analysis of identifying disaster causing factors and accident causation chains is of great significance for preventing or reducing the occurrence of coal mine gas explosion accidents; Firstly, based on domestic coal mine gas accident reports, a knowledge set of accident causes was constructed, and 25 disaster factors of coal mine gas explosion accidents were identified; And based on the theory of complex networks, construct a network of coal mine gas accident disaster causing factors, calculate relevant parameters, analyze the overall and individual attributes of the network, explore the characteristics of coal mine gas disaster causing factors, and identify key nodes; Finally, calculate the betweenness centrality of the causal chain of coal mine gas accidents and propose measures to break the chain. The results show that the causal network of coal mine gas explosion accidents has the characteristics of a small world network, with an average path length of only 1.752, indicating a close coupling relationship between various causal factors. The key nodes include workers' illegal operations, power outages and wind cuts, gas accumulation, coal spontaneous combustion, and gas accumulation; The edge with the highest betweenness centrality is the one where regulatory personnel fail to perform their duties and workers violate regulations. Implementing control over key nodes and edges can effectively prevent the occurrence or development of coal mine gas accidents.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回