系统动力学模型下煤矿工人不安全行为致因分析

    Cause analysis of unsafe behavior of coal miners under the unified dynamic model

    • 摘要: 作为我国能源体系的核心组成部分,煤炭资源在推动社会经济发展过程中发挥着不可替代的作用。然而,煤矿开采活动始终伴随着较高的安全风险。研究数据表明,相当比例的矿难事故可归因于作业人员的不规范操作,这一现象凸显了加强矿工行为安全研究的现实意义和迫切需求。通过深入分析矿工作业过程中的风险行为特征,建立相应的预防机制,对提升煤矿安全生产水平具有重要的实践价值。本文基于2016—2024年452份事故报告及以往研究从人、机、环、管4个方面构建煤矿工人不安全行为影响因素,设置现状延续型、政策优化型、技术升级型、全面发展型4种情景,运用系统动力学进行仿真分析及模拟。结果表明,全面发展型不安全行为水平最低,现状延续型最高,由于管理与技术未能形成协同效应,技术升级型高于政策优化型。应从优化安全管理体制、减轻矿工工作负荷、完善监督与反馈机制、提升设备安全性与人机协同水平,以及加强沟通与协调等5个方面改善煤矿工人的不安全行为水平。

       

      Abstract: As a core component of China's energy system, coal resources play an irreplaceable role in promoting socio-economic development. However, coal mining activities are consistently accompanied by significant safety risks. Research data indicates that a considerable proportion of mining accidents can be attributed to irregular operations by workers, highlighting the practical significance and urgent need to strengthen research on miner behavior safety. By thoroughly analyzing the characteristics of risky behaviors during mining operations and establishing corresponding preventive mechanisms, there is substantial practical value in enhancing the safety standards of coal production.This paper, based on 452 accident reports from 2016 to 2024 and previous studies,constructs a framework of influencing factors for unsafe behaviors of coal miners from four aspects:human,machine, environment,and management.It sets up four scenarios:status quo continuation,policy optimization,technological upgrade,and comprehensive development,and employs system dynamics for simulation.The results indicate that the level of unsafe behaviors is the lowest under the comprehensive development scenario and the highest under the status quo continuation scenario.Due to the lack of synergistic effects between management and technology, the technological upgrade scenario shows a higher level of unsafe behaviors than the policy optimization scenario. To improve the level of unsafe behaviors among coal miners,efforts should be made in five areas:optimizing the safety management system,reducing miners' workload,improving supervision and feedback mechanisms, enhancing equipment safety and human-machine collaboration,and strengthening communication and coordination.

       

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